Apocalypse Now…
THE TUMBRILS ROLL AT DAWN…
By MIKE WHITNEY
Bank of America is buying Merrill Lynch for $45 billion, AIG needs an
emergency $40 billion bail-out from Uncle Sam to stay afloat, and Lehman
Bros is kaput. Whew! The financial world has been turned upside-down
overnight. It’ll be a rough day of trading ahead.”
The news of Wall Street’s Sunday night massacre sent foreign stock
markets into a deep swoon. Shares tumbled in Asia and dropped more than
4 per cent in Europe. The dollar is steadily losing ground to the euro
and gold is on the rise. The question is not whether the Dow will fall,
but “how far” and what affect that will have on increasingly fragile
financial institutions.
Lehman Brothers, the 158 year old Wall Street warhorse, announced Sunday
that it will file for bankruptcy after weekend rescue plans broke down
without finding a buyer. Fears of credit contagion and a global
recession have resurfaced and become more widespread. Lehman’s failure
suggests that that the other Wall Street giants will soon be following
the same path to extinction. Economist Nouriel Roubini put it like this:
“All of the independent broker dealers are going to disappear. In
March it was Bear Stearns. Tonight it was Lehman and Merrill Lynch.
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs should go find a buyer tomorrow.
The business model of broker dealers is fundamentally flawed. They
cannot survive.”
Roubini may be right. The funny thing about capitalism is that you need
capital to play. When the bank-vault is full of nothing but worthless
mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and overvalued junk bonds; the whole
thing goes belly-up fast. That appears to be the case with Lehman Bros,
the century-old Wall Street warhorse that has joined the long procession
of underwater banking establishments now hurtling towards the cliff.
Lehman had a great go of it during the boom times when all it took to
make oodles of money was a predictable flood of low interest credit from
the Fed and a compliant ratings agency that would stamp every crappy
securitized pool of mortgages with a big Triple A before hawking it to
some gullible investor in Shanghai or Heidelberg.
Lehman travails are not much different from anyone else in the banking
fraternity. The problem is that the entire system is under-capitalized
and over-leveraged. When Bear Stearns went down last year, it was
levered at a ratio of 26 to 1. When Hedgie Carlyle Capital blew up, it
was levered at 32 to 1. And when Fannie and Freddie were finally taken
over by the US Treasury; the two behemoths were levered at 80 to 1,
which is to say that they had a one dollar capital cushion for every $80
they had loaned out. They would have continued on the same erratic path
–buying up toxic mortgages and MBS from people who had no chance of
ever repaying their loans — had they not been taken into federal
“conservatorship”, which is a fancy way of saying they were insolvent.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson unwisely attached a 6 inch-wide
money-hose from the bowels of the Treasury to Fannie’s front office so
the two mortgage giants could continue to teeter-along at taxpayer
expense regardless of the fact that the securitization business model
has completely broken down and foreign investors–including China–have
already started cutting back on their purchases of GSE debt. This is no
laughing matter. The $700 billion US current account deficit is financed
through foreign investors who are getting increasingly jittery about
sinking money into a system that looks more like casino-poker all the
time. Here’s a clip from China daily on Friday:
“China, which holds a fifth of its currency reserves in Fannie Mae
and Freddie Mac debt, may cut the portion held in US dollars,
according to China International Capital Corp (CICC), one of the
nation’s biggest investment banks.
“The crisis has made Chinese officials realize it’s a bad idea to
put all their eggs in one basket,’wrote CICC Chief Economist Ha
Jiming. ‘This will likely lead to greater diversification of foreign
exchange reserve investments.’ China held $447.5 billion of US
agency bonds as of June 2008, according to the CICC calculations
using disclosures by the US Treasury. It is likely to reduce the
portion of reserves in dollar assets from the current 60 percent by
purchasing more non-dollar assets with new reserves, he said.”(China
Daily)
Naturally, foreign investors and central banks will curtail their
purchases of US securities and Treasuries until there’s some indication
that US markets have stabilized and will be able to withstand the
ferocious headwinds of the biggest housing crash in history, a frozen
corporate bond market, a paralyzed banking system, and steadily waning
consumer demand. But Americans still seem breezily unaware of what all
this means for the country’s future. They’d rather savor every new bit
of gossip about the Bible beating, Grizzly-hunting Alaska governor who
wants to lead the country back to Frontierland lips rather than learn
about the about the firestorm raging through the financial markets.
When the net foreign purchases of US financial assets begin to slow; the
game is over. The Fed will be forced to raise interest rates to attract
foreign capital which will put downward pressure on the economy and
accelerate the housing crash. Paulson’s decision to provide unlimited
capital to Fannie and Freddie, will stack more and more debt atop the
faltering dollar and US Treasuries. It is the equivalent of lashing the
greenback to an anvil and tossing it overboard. Paulson’s attempts to
stave off a systemic banking crisis ensures that the federal government
will undergo an unprecedented funding crisis sometime in the near
future. There will be higher taxes for the battered middle class and
higher interest rates for businesses and consumers. This will trigger a
protracted economic slowdown and weaker growth. Credit will get tighter,
banks will default, unemployment will soar and GDP will shrivel. A
negative feedback loop will develop from the faltering financial system
to the real economy; a vicious circle ending in massive layoffs,
weakening demand, falling stock prices, and withering consumer
confidence. Welcome to Soup kitchen USA.
Presently, Paulson and New York Fed chief Timothy Geithner are pressing
Wall Street banking elites to pony-up enough money to buy up Lehman’s
devalued real estate assets. The Fed’s proposal is similar to
Greenspan’s rescue of Long-Term Management LP (LTCM) which roiled
financial markets in the late 1990s. Paulson has signaled that there be
NO government bailout like Bear Stearns when the Fed bought up $29
billion in mortgage-related assets. The Fed is tapped out, having
already committed half of its balance sheet — nearly $500 billion — in
repos through its “auction facilities” which have recently skyrocketed
to record highs of $19 billion per week for the last 3 weeks. The crisis
is deepening by the day. Similarly, the Treasury has hitched its wagon
to Fannie and Freddie which expands the National Debt by another $5.2
trillion and seriously undermines the “full faith and credit” of the US
in the process. Keep in mind, the biggest source of American power is
its access to cheap capital via the US taxpayer. Paulson has now put
that source of revenue at risk by nationalizing the housing industry and
burdening the taxpayer with (potentially) astronomical future
obligations, even though he knows full-well that the market could drop
another 15 to 20 per cent before the end of 2010. Paulson’s recklessness
has doomed the country to years of struggle.
As of Sunday afternoon, no deal had been struck to buy Lehman Bros. and
it looked like the bank was headed for bankruptcy. Wall Street prepared
for the worst. Nouriel Roubini gave a particularly grim assessment of a
Lehman default in his latest post on his blogsite Global EconoMonitor:
“It is now clear that we are again – as we were in mid- March at the
time of the Bear Stearns collapse – an epsilon away from a
generalized run on most of the shadow banking system, especially the
other major independent broker dealers (Lehman, Merrill Lynch,
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs). If Lehman does not find a buyer over
the weekend and the counterparties of Lehman withdraw their credit
lines on Monday, you will have not only a collapse of Lehman but
also the beginning of a run on the other independent broker
dealers…Then this run would lead to a massive systemic meltdown of
the financial system. That is the reason why the Fed has convened in
emergency meetings the heads of all major Wall Street firms on
Friday and again today to convince them not to pull the plug on
Lehman and maintain their exposure to this distressed broker
dealer.”
The giant investment banks are inescapably trapped in a net of complex,
unregulated, over-the-counter derivatives contracts which — given the
right conditions — could threaten every financial skyscraper in lower
Manhattan.
A sizable portion of Lehman’s $128 billion in long-term debt will
probably be ring-fenced in a “bad bank” which will hold its toxic
mortgage-backed assets and be financed by either the Treasury or the
other Wall Street banks. The good assets can then be separated and sold
off to either Bank of America or Barclays, the two prospective buyers.
That way, according to Forbes, “the bad bank would be kept afloat while
its assets could be unwound over a period of time in a way that wouldn’t
disrupt the financial system more than it already has been.”
Some variation of the “Forbes solution” will probably be enacted, but,
let’s be clear; this is really no solution at all. It’s just a way of
buying time by rolling-over debt to avoid the ugly consequences of
accounting for the massive losses. In other words, it is cheaper to keep
burning up capital to prop up moribund assets than take the loss and
make a genuine effort to restructure the dysfunctional system. Here’s
how former Fed chief Paul Volcker summed it up just two weeks ago:
“This bright new system, this practice in the United States, this
practice in the United Kingdom and elsewhere, has broken down.
Growth in the economy in this decade will be the slowest of any
decade since the Great Depression, right in the middle of all this
financial innovation. The current financial system is dysfunctional.
That is a polite way of saying it failed.”
Securitization has failed. The cuts to the Fed’s Funds rate have failed.
The auction facilities — TAF, PDCF, and TSLF — have all failed. The
off-balance sheets operations, the debt-pyramiding asset-inflation, the
Enron-style accounting, the SIVs, the CP, MBS, CDOs, have failed. The
subprimes, the piggybacks, the option-ARMs, the Alt-As have all failed.
Structured finance has failed. The system doesn’t work; won’t work;
can’t work. It’s built on the misguided assumption that capitalism can
thrive without capital; that one dollar can be infinitely magnified by
complex debt-instruments and mega-leveraging to generate real wealth and
keep the wheels of finance and industry humming along. It can’t be done.
The system is under-water. Economist and author Henry Liu put it like
this:
“Yet this approach is preferred by those in authority, trapped in self
deception about unregulated market capitalism being still fundamentally
sound. They try to calm markets by asserting that the current turmoil is
merely a minor liquidity bottleneck that can be handled by the central
bank releasing more liquidity against the full face value of collateral
of declining worth. (There are) No signs of any coherent grand strategy
or plan to save the cancerous system from structural self-destruction.”
Instead, the marauding of a handful of Wall Street
“innovators”–drunk with hubris and blinded by their own bizarre
sense of entitlement—have thrust the financial markets to the
brink of catastrophe and pushed the the broader “real” economy
towards a painful retrenchment. Now everyone will pay for the greed
of the few.
So, what’s next?
An article in the Financial Times spells it out, but government
officials will undoubtedly deny it until after the November presidential
election.
From the Financial Times:
“The debate over whether an RTC-style (Resolution Trust
Corporation)vehicle is needed – perhaps just to ring-fence troubled
mortgage assets – also gained traction among central bankers at the
Jackson Hole symposium hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas
City in August….
“The problem that an RTC vehicle could help to solve is that there
are very few buyers for troubled mortgage assets, and few investors
now willing to inject fresh capital into the tattered balance sheets
of the banks left holding them. As a result, banks such as Lehman
and Washington Mutual have struggled to sell their soured mortgage
portfolios, and to broker deals for fresh capital. The takeover of
Fannie and Freddie, which virtually wiped out preferred equity
holders, has also made banks’ access to the preferred capital market
increasingly difficult. Through a new RTC, the government could
provide financial support if needed in return for a share in
potential profits once the assets were liquidated.”
What the Feds are refusing to admit, is that there is already a plan in
place to make the government an active, “shareholding” partner in
failing commercial banks. (There’s no way the FDIC could pay for all the
projected losses anyway) That will give the US Treasury the authority to
provide insolvent banks with enough capital to muddle through while
their impaired assets are liquidated via the RTC; a morgue for
distressed mortgage-backed garbage.
How this will affect the already-anemic dollar is anyone’s guess. But it
won’t be pretty.
–
R. T. Naylor
Professor of Economics
McGill University
855 Sherbrooke St West
Montreal H3A 2T7
514 398-4828









































































