Aftermath of South Ossetia 5-day Siege

Anger smoulders in rebel city rubble

Barely a building in the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali escaped unscathed from the fighting that began last week, the BBC’s Sarah Rainsford discovers.

Some, like the offices of the local administration, are smoke-blackened shells; in one residential area, a whole street has been reduced to rubble.

Everywhere, there are mountains of shattered glass. Those who didn’t flee South Ossetia as refugees are now emerging from their basements to begin the clean-up.
There is no running water here now and no electricity.
One woman, Lusya, took me down into the basement of her apartment block to show me where she had hidden from the worst of the fighting. A small oil lamp threw the only light onto the dank, cramped cellar.
“We were here four days and nights. We couldn’t sleep. Our whole building shook with the bombing,” Lusya said. “I just sat here, with my 16-year-old son.”
As soon as the fighting calmed down, Lusya sent her son across the border into Russia for safety.
She and her neighbours – and many Ossetians I met both in Tskhinvali and in the main refugee camp in Russia – are furious about what has happened to their city.

They are very clear who they blame: Georgia’s President Mikhail Saakashvili, who sent troops to re-take control of this breakaway region. That effort has clearly backfired. The pro-Russian sentiment I experienced on my last visit four years ago has become far fiercer as a result of this conflict.
“They signed a ceasefire, but Saakashvili can start bombing us again any minute,” Lusya said, referring to the OSCE/EU-brokered peace plan between Moscow and Tbilisi.
“Look how many people died here! We can never join Georgia after this. We’ll cope on our own.”

Russians remain

Moscow says that 1,600 civilians died in the fighting in Ossetia. In Tskhinvali, locals claimed bodies had lain in the streets for some time, and many are now buried in temporary graves in back yards. We saw no evidence to support – or dispute – the numbers.

Destroyed Georgian tanks make good trophy photo opportunities for Russian troops

“We were bombed for three days and nights. If Russia had not helped, we would have disappeared,” Lusya’s neighbour Elena said, visibly angry. “Only Russia takes us under its wing. We want to be with Russia.”
On the next street, an armoured personnel carrier carrying Russian troops rolled past the mangled metal wreckage of two Georgian tanks. Other soldiers stopped to take trophy photographs.
We were escorted in South Ossetia by the Russian military, which now controls most of the territory here. Pointing out the tank wreckage, the deputy commander of Russian ground forces insisted that Georgia was the initial aggressor in this conflict – sending in tanks that targeted Russians and Ossetians.
“Half an hour before the tanks began firing, the Georgian peacekeepers disappeared from the base,” said Igor Konashenkov. “They left their food uneaten and abandoned their kit. Then the shooting began.”
Despite international calls for a withdrawal, there is no sign of Russia pulling its troops out of Ossetia. By Wednesday, they had received an order to cease fire, but not to leave.
Their presence is popular with many locals, who wave as soldiers drive past in the street.

Little left

On Wednesday, the military reported no serious breaches of the ceasefire, but a doctor at an emergency field hospital said 11 Russian soldiers had been wounded by Georgian snipers.
Heading out of Tskhinvali, we passed several houses in flames and many others that had already been burned out. At least two of the villages, including Kekhvi, were home to ethnic Georgians in Ossetia before this conflict, when, it appears, most of them fled. We met no Georgians at all on this trip.
“There were Georgian snipers in the villages and they were driven out,” said the military spokesman we were travelling with. “Russian special forces will have used mortars and firebombs and the houses went up in flames. It’s not revenge burnings.”
But some suggest Ossetian militia are looting and burning in the Georgian villages.
We had no way to investigate that. Either way, there will soon be little left for the Georgians to return to.
This conflict has already destroyed any trust between Georgian and Ossetians. It now looks like any chance there was of reconciliation is burning along with the houses.

South Ossetia’s 5-Day War: Analysis

Russian Strategic Change
Analysis After Georgia War
Eduard Popov
8-23-8

Now we can make first conclusions of this swift-flowing military campaign in the Caucasus and a diplomatic war- between Russia and Georgia and between the Euro-Atlantic West and Russia.
The number of armed groups (including military hardware) was approximately the same on each side. Russia had the only serious advantage thanks to its air forces. The opposite side possessed a greater variety of ‘instruments’- such as more advanced communication systems, perfect knowledge of the territory and fortifications prepared in advance. Still, there is hardly anyone who could doubt Russia`s military victory.

It would be incorrect to compare Russian and Georgian military potential (the thing some liberal journalists are fond of doing). Weak transportation capacity of the Roksky tunnel and tough deadlines prevented Russia from increasing its troops. But it did not turn out to be as necessary as it seemed at the very beginning. Military experts say the Russian peacekeeping forces had had chances to seize control over the territory without additional support. Now it will take the Georgian army much time to recover from that psychological stress they got during this 5-day war. Georgia has lost many soldiers. Four thousand men- these figures are provided by the Russian officials but still the statistics may be different. To lose 14% of the overall quantity of troops in 5 days-is really a great blow.

Yet we have not received exact data concerning Georgia`s loses in air forces but they are certainly as big as those among the ground troops. For the Republic of Georgia this is a catastrophe. According to preliminary estimations, they lost 80 out of 230 tanks.

It will take much time to restore Georgia’s broken military machine, which appears to be possible only under the following circumstances (and still there are no guarantees): a) US and NATO allocate new funds to train the aggressor b) they unblock the routes for delivering military equipment. Moscow will hardly turn a blind eye on how the upgrade of the Georgian army. The nearest channel is in Ukraine but it is almost exhausted. Mikhail Saakashvili now may hope for deliveries by air or by sea, if Turkey agrees to open the Straits and air corridors. But to spend new huge sums on this would be unwise. It appears to be more effective to found US and NATO bases in Georgia. It is just a matter of time to learn whether the Pentagon has made such a decision or not.

To avoid one-sided approach to the outcomes of the military operation in South Ossetia, let us emphasize that the aggressor`s machine was not destroyed completely. It means that Georgia will be determined to have a revenge. We should be ready for the increasing terror threats from Georgia. Moscow will be pressed over the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi. Since they failed to boycott the Games in Beijing, they will try to use this scenario in Russia. The blast on the Loo beach in Sochi on August,7, came as the first warning to Russia. Moscow has only two ways to follow: to defeat Georgia or (alas) to forget about the Olympics. However, there is also a third way-to improve relations with the West at the cost of new and very meaningful concessions…

Now let us look at the situation from a political angle…

The major thing is that Moscow has demonstrated its will and decisiveness. The image of the Putin-Medvedev tandem worldwide is quite positive. According to Dmitry Medvedev, the modern Russia has used force for repelling the attack from within and, being morally strong, did the right thing. Moscow`s direct participation helped to prevent Saakashvili from implementing his other cruel plans. The authorities and the nation stood close together these days. All the differences were forgotten for a while. Now it is clear that Russians can be patriots not only during the World Football Cup.

Against all attempts of some western political analysts and journalists to persuade the rest of the world that Moscow invaded the “peace loving” Georgia (which looks more like a piranha), Russia proved that it began a peacekeeping operation since it is interested in maintaining stability on its southern borders. In Moscow they understand it quite well that it is not Georgia they are dealing with but the United States. One of the main aims of the Saakashvili regime was to provoke Russia for the use of force in the conflict zone and show the world this “Russian aggressor”. If succeeded, Tbilisi (and Kiev as well) would have received their long-expected NATO membership by the end of 2008. Their plot worked only half-way. Georgian army was the first to lose its soldiers, and that was Saakashvili`s first mistake. His other misfortune was the failure of the blitzkrieg. The courage of the Ossetians, their nerve saved Russia`s territorial integrity in the Caucasus.

A fragile alliance between Russia and two NATO members, France and Germany, was shattered. Although it was evident for everyone that Russia did not invade Georgia but carried out its peacekeeping mission there, Paris and Berlin expressed their dissatisfaction with the Russian reaction. They simply pretended not to be aware that Moscow`s interference took place after Tbilisi attempted to start genocide of South Ossetians as nation and then do the same thing in Abkhazia. Being aware of its historical mission, Russia certainly had nothing to do but interfere. But Russians should better expectano signs of gratitude from the West as democracy is the most cynical and the least moral form of political order the humankind invented over the past 2000 years.

So, the main aim of joint Georgian-American-Israeli authorities was to cast doubt on Moscow`s non-aggressive foreign policy and justify the aspirations of Tbilisi and Kiev for NATO membership. They also wanted to make the old Europe believe that the deployment of US missile shield there would do them only good. Today we are witnessing a new wave of unanimity between Berlin and Washington on the issue of Euro-Atlantic integration, and an immediate solution of a missile issue in Poland. The US shoot a few rabbits at one shot: covered the war in South Ossetia in a way necessary to blacken Russia, tamed the old Europe and now are preparing to set new military bases in Georgia- former sovereign state…

Although the massacre in South Ossetia came as a direct blow meant for Russia and Europe, Georgia happened to be in the worst situation. Washington has no plans to restore its territorial integrity. Americans have begun active work with the leaders of Abkhazia. A vague status of “unrecognized” will be used by the US not for the sake of Georgia but for imposing a vassal system of rule and further separation of the North Caucasus from Russia.

A global geopolitical shift which occurred on the first day of the conflict in South Ossetia will probably have very serious consequences. As serious as those after the 9/11 attacks. A global system of international relations is shattered. Old alliances cease to exist while the new ones appear each day. Despite the US “global leadership”, the situation is too unpredictable to say that this American hegemony will last for ever.

SOURCE: http://www.rense.com/general83/rosw.htm

Georgian Port under Russian Surveillance

Russia to keep forces at key port

Russia says the roads are clear in Georgia

Russia has defended plans to keep its forces in the key Georgian port of Poti, saying it does not break terms of a French-brokered ceasefire deal.
The US, France and UK say Russia has already failed to comply by creating buffer zones around the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Russia’s Gen Anatoly Nogovitsyn said combat troops had now left Georgia and only peacekeepers remained.
Georgia accuses Moscow of creating an economic stranglehold on the country.
Georgian forces are reported to be back in control of the main east-west highway and residents are returning to their homes in Gori, the largest town close to the border with South Ossetia.
For the first time in more than two weeks the main road from the capital, Tbilisi, to Gori is packed with traffic, reports the BBC’s Gabriel Gatehouse.
Minivans are taking passengers back to the towns they left, and carrying provisions to villages where very little has got through the conflict began.
But this is still a fluid situation, our correspondent reports. The Russian checkpoints along this road may have gone but Russian forces still share the road with Georgian soldiers in their green pick-up trucks.

Earlier, about 1,000 Georgians held a demonstration just outside Poti against the Russian continued presence, the Associated Press reports. There are also reports of protesters marching on Russian positions outside Gori.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who brokered the peace plan, has called on Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to withdraw Russian forces from the road linking Poti and Senaki, scene of Georgia’s main airbase.
Mr Sarkozy’s office says he spoke to Mr Medvedev by telephone.
Earlier, Gen Nogovitsyn, who said Russia was not the Soviet Union or the Evil Empire, accused Georgia of preparing acts of sabotage in South Ossetia and preparing troops for “further actions”.

He also warned that should the US start rearming the Georgian army, Russia might enlarge its peacekeeping force.
Moscow intends to maintain what it describes as a peacekeeping presence of 2,600 troops in “buffer zones” around Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Russia insists it is allowed these zones under previous peacekeeping agreements that ended fighting in Abkhazia and South Ossetia when they first broke away from Tbilisi in the 1990s.
The zones include sections of the main highway from Tbilisi to the Black Sea as well as the airbase at Senaki.
Gen Nogovitsyn admitted that Poti, 32km (20 miles) south of Abkhazia, was outside this zone.
The general accused Nato of increasing tensions by massing forces in the Black Sea. He said the arrival of Spanish, German, US and Polish ships in the Black Sea “did not contribute to the settlement of the situation”.

PEACE PLAN
No more use of force
Stop all military actions for good
Free access to humanitarian aid
Georgian troops return to their places of permanent deployment
Russian troops to return to pre-conflict positions
International talks about security in South Ossetia and Abkhazia
Crisis day-by-day
Eyewitness: Russian withdrawal
In pictures: Troops on the move

Nato says it is holding long-planned exercises in the area, which were not linked to the conflict in Georgia.
Under the terms of the six-point peace plan, Russia must not jeopardise freedom of movement in Georgia, says the BBC’s Humphrey Hawksley in Moscow.
Gen Nogovitsyn said the Russian force was in full compliance with the principles signed by the French and Russian presidents.
“The first of them is not using force,” he said. “The second one is the end of all military actions. The Commander in Chief of the Russian Federation has taken a decision to that effect and all military activities have been stopped.
“Only peacekeeping actions are still being executed by a special contingent.”
France brokered the ceasefire to end fighting over Georgia’s Russian-backed breakaway province of South Ossetia which started on 7 August.
The deal’s terms are vague about the extent of any buffer zones, analysts say.
A spokesman for the French foreign ministry, Eric Chevalier, said a United Nations Security Council resolution was needed to clarify exactly what the ceasefire agreement covers.
The UN Security Council was split this week over a resolution, with rival drafts submitted by Moscow, and the US and its allies.

SOURCE: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7578250.stm

Withdrawal from Ossetia

Eyewitness: Russian troops pull back

Georgians are keenly watching the extent of Russia’s withdrawal

By Gabriel Gatehouse
BBC News, Igoeti village, Georgia

When they left, they left fast.
All morning, the Russian soldiers had been standing listlessly around the checkpoint at Igoeti, just 35km (22 miles) from Tiblisi.
As they cradled their rifles and chatted to local villagers, it seemed they were in no hurry to go.
Then suddenly, at around noon, the first armoured vehicles appeared at speed from around a bend in the road.
Within half an hour tanks and other military vehicles were emerging from the undergrowth and lining up alongside the highway.
The soldiers sitting on top of their armoured personnel carriers seemed pleased to be withdrawing.
“I feel excited, wonderful,” one soldier said. “I’m going home.”
After brief goodbyes with some of the locals and journalists who had got to know them over the past week, they disappeared up the highway in the direction of South Ossetia, joining an ever-growing column of withdrawing Russian troops.
Tension
All that remained were the settling clouds of dust, tank tracks in the tarmac and an empty checkpoint.
That vacuum, though, was soon filled by Georgian police who arrived in large numbers in buses and pick-up trucks.
They had been waiting for this moment ever since the Russians arrived last Friday evening.

I’m glad the Russians have gone. No-one wants a war

Igoeti villager

There had been some tension then as a Russian armoured personnel carrier sat in the middle of the village, flying the Russian flag.
Today, they took back control of Igoeti, but rather than remove the checkpoint, they took it over, stopping some buses of Georgian villagers venturing further up the road.
The Russians, they said, still had their troops on the ground close by.
Indeed, a Russian checkpoint manned by peacekeepers was still in operation seven kilometres further along, and they were not letting the Georgian police cars go any further.
The queues stretched for around 300m, as the policemen waited for news of when they would be allowed to follow the departing Russian soldiers.
Asked when he thought the peacekeepers would also depart, one policeman responded: “Only [Russian Prime Minister Vladimir] Putin knows when they are leaving.”
Buffer zone
At Igoeti, the locals villagers were pleased with the day’s events.
“I’m glad the Russians have gone,” said one man. “No-one wants a war.”
But Georgians will now be watching keenly to see just how far back the Russians will go.
Moscow has said it will withdraw most but not all of its troops.
Some will remain within a security buffer zone.
The Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), which is monitoring the ceasefire on the ground, says it understands the zone should extend seven kilometres either side of the de facto border with South Ossetia.
The Russians have not yet defined the size and extent of that zone, and the issue is likely to cause tension in the days to come.
The presence of Russian peacekeepers too is a controversial one.
Moscow says it has the right to keep its forces in and around the South Ossetian area in order to protect the local population, many of whom hold Russian passports.
The Georgians feel quite simply that the presence of any armed Russian forces on their territory amounts to occupation.

SOURCE: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7577436.stm

Analysis and Background

Russia’s game plan in Georgia

By Steve Rosenberg
BBC News

As far as Moscow is concerned, the Russian army has completed its pullout from Georgia.

Western nations accuse Russia of an incomplete pullout from Georgia

On Friday evening, in a meeting shown on Russian TV, the country’s defence minister informed President Dmitry Medvedev that the withdrawal of military units had been concluded “according to plan”.
But according to which plan?
The ceasefire agreement brokered by France had called on Russia and Georgia to pull back their forces to positions held on 6 August, before the outbreak of hostilities.
Russia, though, says it has the right to maintain a troop presence inside Georgia. It has created a buffer zone – what it calls an “area of responsibility” – around South Ossetia, which cuts into undisputed Georgian territory.
There are reports, too, of Russian soldiers digging in around the commercial port of Poti in western Georgia.
The United States and European leaders have criticised Moscow’s limited pullout.
Some Western politicians would like to see Russia punished, by excluding Moscow from the G8 club of industrialised nations or by preventing Russia from joining the World Trade Organisation.
The reality, though, is that there is little that America, Nato or the European Union can do to influence Moscow.

Today – buoyed by massive oil and gas revenues – Russia feels more confident to flex its muscles
The West is not willing to go to war with Russia to defend Georgia. Moscow knows that.
Europe relies heavily on Russian oil and gas supplies. Russia is aware of that, too.
And the United States needs Russia’s help – not only to secure energy supplies – but also to solve the impasse over Iran’s nuclear programme and in the area of nuclear non-proliferation.
In what has become an increasingly violent geo-political game in Georgia, Russia holds the trump cards. But what does Moscow hope to achieve?
Renewed confidence
Russia says its “peacekeepers” are sticking around to prevent further bloodshed and to protect the people of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
But Georgia accuses Russia of attacking its sovereignty. Kremlin critics suspect that with its “zone of responsibility”, Moscow is trying to increase the pressure on Tbilisi and topple President Mikhail Saakashvili.

The Georgian leader’s pro-West stance is of serious concern to Moscow

By keeping troops in Georgia, Russia is also sending an unambiguous message to the West: that the former Soviet republic remains part of Russia’s sphere of influence.
In recent years, the Kremlin has grown frustrated with what it sees as attempts by the West to gain a foothold in Russia’s backyard.
It suspects Western governments of having orchestrated Georgia’s “Rose Revolution” in 2003 and Ukraine’s “Orange Revolution” in 2004, which brought pro-Western governments to power in those countries.
Russia has also accused Western intelligence agencies of secretly funding opposition groups inside Russia.
It has watched with dismay as Nato has expanded to the Baltic Sea. And Russia is furious that Ukraine and Georgia have been promised that, one day, they will be offered Nato membership.
What is more, Moscow views the US missile defence system to be based in Poland and the Czech Republic as a direct threat to its national security.
A decade and a half ago, Russia was a weak, impoverished nation, which had lost its empire and was reliant on financial handouts from the West.
Today – buoyed by massive oil and gas revenues – Russia feels more confident to flex its muscles, restore lost influence and defend its interests close to home.

SOURCE: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7578726.stm